Review Test Submission: Quiz3 Content Course QMBLC Summer14 Test Quiz3 • Question 1 A…

Review Test Submission: Quiz3
 
Content
 
Course QMBLC Summer14
Test Quiz3
 
 
 
 
 
 
• Question 1

 
 A payoff table is given below and the probabilities of s1, s2, and s3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what is the most you pay for a highly reliable forecast?
 s1 s2 s3
d1 250 750 500
d2 300 -250 1200
d3 500 500 600
   
  

   
• Question 2

 
 Expected value is the sum of the weighted payoff possibilities at a circular node in a decision tree.   
  
   
• Question 3

 
 A payoff table is given as; what choice should be made by the conservative decision maker?
 s1 s2 s3
d1 250 750 500
d2 300 -250 1200
d3 500 500 600
   
  
   
• Question 4

 
 For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s1) = .15, P(s2) = .5, and P(s3) = .35.
What is the expected value for the best decision?
 
  State of Nature
Decision s1 s2 s3
d1   -5,000  1,000 10,000
d2 -15,000 -2,000 40,000
 
    
  
   
• Question 5

 
 If the probability of s1 is .40 what is the value at node 11.
   
  
   
• Question 6

 
 Given the following table of payoffs use sensitivity analysis to determine at what probability or less you would select decision A?
Decision Event1 Event 2
A 0 20
B 6 16
C 8 0
   
  
   
• Question 7

 
 Given the following table of payoffs use sensitivity analysis to determine at what probability or more you would select decision C?
Decision Event1 Event 2
A 0 20
B 6 16
C 8 0
   
  
   
• Question 8

 
 If the probability of s1 = .6 and the probability of F = .40 what is the value at node 4.

    
  
   
• Question 9

 
 The following is a payoff table giving profits for various situations.

What decision would an optimist make?   
  
   
• Question 10

 
 The following is a payoff table.

What decision should be made based on the minimax regret criterion?   
  
   

 

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