forecasting

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. Download the following file, Homework 2 – Forecasting.xls Cut and paste the data from this file to your own spreadsheet.

2. Perform a Forecast for February 1, 2005 using the 6 methods discussed in class: Naïve, Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Regression (including needed charts), and Regression Tool.

3. Create a summary sheet comparing the following methods: Naïve, SMA, WMA, ES, ES with Solver, Regression.

4. On the summary sheet, include a recommendation of the method you would use along with justification.

5. Using Solver, an Excel tool, minimize the MAD cell in the ES forecast by changing the Alpha.

SMA: Perform the forecast for 5 periods

WMA weights: W1=3.5, W2=2.5, W3=2, W4=1

ES: Alpha = .5

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