# 5hours Assignment 2: Instructions Pioneer Aircraft Co. sells private, single-engine planes. Most sales are for customers engaged in private and leisure flying. In a 50-week period, sales in the past f

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5hours

Assignment 2:

Instructions

Pioneer Aircraft Co. sells private, single-engine planes. Most sales are for customers engaged in private and leisure flying. In a 50-week period, sales in the past five years have averaged to the following:

PLANES SOLD WEEKS THIS NUMBER SOLD

0 40

1 8

2 1

3 1

In a three-page essay, determine the items below:

Determine the probability of each number of planes sold—of 0, 1, 2, 3—in a 50-week period. (Pioneer sales office is closed the other two weeks of the year.)

Decide what approach is best used to determine probability. Distinguish between the approaches to make it clear that the approach used was the best fit for these airplane sales.

Determine if the approach would change if we also needed to track sales of some planes with GPS installed.

Be sure to provide research to support your ideas. Use APA style, and cite and reference your sources to avoid plagiarism.

Resources

5hours Assignment 2: Instructions Pioneer Aircraft Co. sells private, single-engine planes. Most sales are for customers engaged in private and leisure flying. In a 50-week period, sales in the past f

Running head: PIONEER AIRCRAFT COMPANY 0 Pioneer Aircraft Company Amara Fofana United States Army Sergeants Major Academy Methods of Analysis for Business Operations MSL 5080 Mrs. Martha Stanislas December 7, 2016 Pioneer Aircraft Company Pioneer Aircraft Company is closed two weeks out of the year; we understand that out of the 52 weeks in the year, the company is in business for 50 weeks. With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 0 planes sold per week, there was 40 times in the year (Render, Stair, Hanna & Hale, 2015). The probability for the company to sell zero planes per week is equal to 40 weeks divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .8. Therefore, the probability for zero planes per week to be sold is .8 in a 50-week period. With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 1 planes sold per week, there was 8 times in the year. The probability for the company to sell one plane per week is equal to 8 weeks divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .16. Therefore, the probability for one plane per week to be sold is .16 in a 50-week period. With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 2 planes sold per week, there was one time in the year. The probability for the company to sell two planes per week is equal to 1 week divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .02. Therefore, the probability for two planes per week to be sold is .02 in a 50-week period. With the information provided, we can determine the probability for each number of planes sold during the year. For the number 3 planes sold per week, there was one time in the year. The probability for the company to sell three planes per week is equal to 1 week divided by 50 weeks, which is equal to .02. Therefore, the probability for three planes per week to be sold is .02 in a 50-week period. We utilize the relative frequency approach because we note that the idea of the relative frequency of an event and the models of long-term behavior play a very important role. We used a “frequency approach” to the probability of an event based on the observation of the relative frequency convergence for this event in repeated random trials in order to understand both the short-term unpredictability of the phenomena Randomness and the long-term regularity that probability describes (United, 2013). Moreover, this frequentist approach will be useful in providing an approximation of a real probability, thanks to a sufficiently large sample: We will be able to compare the empirical results obtained by the observation of the frequencies and the theoretical results obtained by the approach. Observing a divergence may help them to become aware of a misconception. A fundamental ensemble experiment Ω is executed several times under the same conditions. For each event E of Ω, n (E) is the number of times that the event E occurs during the first n repetitions of the experiment (Pons, 2012). Some inconveniences are that it is not known if n (E) will converge to a constant limit, which will be the same for each sequence of repetitions of the experiment. In the case of the jet of a piece for example, can we be sure that the proportion of piles on the first n jets will tend to reverse a given limit when n grows to infinity? Even if it converges to a certain value, can we be sure that we will get the same proportion of batteries again if the experiment is repeated a second time? We did not use the classic approach because it involves a personal or interpersonal assessment of the effects of chance on future events. It is a kind of speculation about the future from the elements known or supposed to constitute the present. The notion of “probability” is associated with the notions of “chances”, “possibilities”, “hope”, “belief”, “credibility”, “trust”. The “classic” definition is based on a postulate or principle: The events that can be observed at the end of a process where chance occurs (random experiment) are all reducible to a system of “cases” (the possible outcomes) of the same possibilities, or judged as such (equal probability postulated). This hypothesis depends on the capacities of the subject to analyze the different cases and to consider them as equivalent from the point of view of their possibilities. It is a Subjective (epistemic) approach. The objective probability is the probability that can be verified empirically by the repetition of an experiment under the same conditions. The subjective probability is that which cannot or can hardly be confirmed by experience (Prasanta, 2011). Example: The probability that you pass your Bachelor Diploma this year is different from next year, assuming you have to pass the lass exam. It is impossible, because the experiment cannot be repeated indefinitely. In addition, even if you had the opportunity to retake the exam one million times, you could not do it under the same conditions. If you attempt to pass the exam for the 10th time, you are far from the level you had at the first time; you no longer have the same age, the same stress. Therefore, you can only give subjective estimates based on your personal feeling of the type: “I worked well, I feel I will succeed I would say I have 80% chance. Subjective probability: the set of judgments carried by a hypothetical individual necessarily flows from the assumptions to which he freely indulges under conditions of uncertainty. Objective probability: which is based on something concrete, demonstrable, a proof, and a statistic for example. Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with the calculation of the probability of occurrence of a given event, expressed in numbers between 1 and 0. An event with a probability of 1 can be considered as a certainty (Pons, 2012). The approach used for a probability will change when the data change. Because Pioneer Aircraft Company only sale one type of aircraft, all its clients are those that are looking for the product on hands. If the company starts producing and selling aircrafts with GPS, Pioneer will attract more clients, enabling customers to have a choice selection. When the company starts offering a different type of planes to its customers, the probability for people to buy a plane with a build in GPS will affect the sales of the original aircrafts. However, the approach used to determine the probability would not change. An example is a coffee shop that only sale coffee will only see one probability in its business because people can only buy coffee in the coffee shop. However, when the company start selling espresso, the probability of people buying a coffee will change but the approach to determine the probability will not change. References Prasanta S., B. (2011). Philosophy of Statistics. [N.p.]: North Holland. Pons, O. (2012). Inequalities In Analysis And Probability. Singapore: World Scientific. Render, B., Stair, R. M., Jr., Hanna, M. E., & Hale, T. S. (2015). Quantitative analysis for management (12th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson. United, N. (2013). Guidelines on Integrated Economic Statistics. New York: United Nations Publications.

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